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People often draw inferences from sequences of past performance, sometimes perceiving patterns even in random outcomes. This has fueled debates regarding phenomena such as the hot hand and gambler’s …
We turn the zero-profit condition that is typically used to determine the number of firms into a game of entry/exit. We assume that identical firms compete in Cournot fashion, and when market …
This paper studies the effects of overreaction to recent news for macroeconomic outcomes in the context of a quantitative model of sovereign debt and default. Overreaction is formalized in terms of …