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People often draw inferences from sequences of past performance, sometimes perceiving patterns even in random outcomes. This has fueled debates regarding phenomena such as the hot hand and gambler’s …
This paper studies the effects of overreaction to recent news for macroeconomic outcomes in the context of a quantitative model of sovereign debt and default. Overreaction is formalized in terms of …
Aapo Aaltio, Riku Buri, Antto Jokelainen, Johan Lundberg
A key challenge in cartel enforcement is identifying collusive agreements. We study two major Nordic procurement cartels that operated in the asphalt paving market. We find evidence that during the …